ICLR Case Study: Caught 7 times between 2015 and 2017
JumpstartSignal flagged ICON plc (ICLR) on 8 individual trading days across 4 signal clusters between 2013 and 2017.
$32.91
(vs +417% SPY)
4 clusters
out of 100
- Signal Breakdown
- 🏆 6 SPOTLIGHT ✅ 2 OPPORTUNITY 📌 387 MONITOR
- Win Rate
- 100% (8/8 positive)
- Price Buckets
- 🚀 Growth ($5–$20) · ⚖️ Momentum ($20–$100)
About ICON plc
ICON plc is a global contract research organization (CRO) headquartered in Dublin, Ireland, providing clinical research and drug development services to pharmaceutical and biotech clients worldwide. Listed on NASDAQ.
The Story
ICON plc is a global contract research organization that manages clinical trials for pharmaceutical and biotech companies. It first appeared in JumpstartSignal's pipeline in June 2015, trading at $69.77, during a period of sustained growth in drug development outsourcing. In July 2015, the system awarded ICLR a combined score of 83 out of 100: the highest score produced in the entire 14-year backtest. The quality score reached 53 out of 60, reflecting strong fundamentals across every profitability and balance sheet metric. The entry score reached 20 out of 20, the maximum, meaning every technical timing signal aligned simultaneously. In 14 years of daily backtesting across thousands of tickers, only ICLR has ever hit that combination. Three signal clusters appeared: June 24-25, 2015, July 28, 2015, and January 17-20, 2017. From the first signal at $69.77, the stock grew to $180.25 by the end of the backtest window, a return of +158%. The S&P 500 returned +289% over the same period.
Signal Log: All 8 Days
Every day ICLR passed our 5-stage pipeline, with the signal level and score breakdown. How scoring works →
Returns measured from entry price to 2026-02-01. Split-adjusted OHLCV. Score breakdown: Q=quality (0–60), E=entry (0–20), S=sentiment (0–10), B=sector bonus (0–10). Sentiment scores show as 0 because backtests use historical data, AI news sentiment analysis is only available in our live daily screening. In live mode, positive news coverage typically adds 5–10 points. Past performance does not indicate future results.
What If You Invested $10,000 at the First Signal?
Hypothetical buy-and-hold from first signal date to 2026-02-01. Not investment advice.
What This Teaches
ICLR provides the most direct test of what SPOTLIGHT status means in practice. The highest score the system has ever awarded, 83 out of 100 with a perfect entry score, did not produce market-beating returns from the signal date. The stock grew, substantially, but the broader market grew faster. This is a feature of the scoring system, not a flaw. The signals reflect fundamental quality and technical momentum alignment at a point in time. They are not predictions about relative performance over the following decade. A contract research organization operating in a steady, moderately growing sector will not produce the same returns as a semiconductor company at the start of an AI infrastructure cycle, regardless of how exceptional its signal quality is. ICLR sits alongside NVDA and ANET as one of only four tickers in 14 years to reach SPOTLIGHT. The others generated substantial alpha. ICLR did not. That variance is the honest version of what a 71.4% win rate means: the signal is right most of the time, not all of the time.
See how the full 5-stage pipeline and scoring system works →
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